Tailgate Confidential: Super Bowl Picks


The only thing crazier than spending an entire week breaking down the Super Bowl, going back and forth about game scenarios, and arguing about whether or not Eli Manning is an elite quarterback is spending an hour picking Super Bowl prop bets. If you guessed that I fall under the crazier category, you’d be right. I’m going to pick my favorite Super Bowl props and give you sure fire lock picks. I might even say something about the game along the way.

For anyone that isn’t a degenerate, here’s the down and dirty way to read lines. Cleveland +150 means that if you place a $100 bet and Cleveland wins, you get $150. If the line was Cleveland -150, you would have to bet $150 to win $100. There, now we’re all bums. Read on.

Will Kelly Clarkson be wearing a dress to sing the National Anthem?

Yes +140 / No -180

Don’t you have to take the underdog here? Of course she’ll be wearing a dress. What? Is she going to rock a sensible pantsuit to sing the National Freaking Anthem? I want to see a red, white, and blue Tina Turner style gam glamorizer. C’mon, Kelly, show that Chris Berman what a real star looks like.

What color will Madonna’s hair be during the halftime show?

Blonde -400 / Any Other Color +300

I’m torn. On one hand, Madonna is 153 years old and should have wispy white hair by now. On the other hand, I’ve heard that rice cakes and collagen injections help turn hair blonde. Don’t bet this one, unless you have some extra cash and you’ve got a source that says Madonna’s stylist has a sense of humor. (And a death wish)

How many aircraft will be in the flyover?

Over 4.5 +145 / Under 4.5 -185

The most fun coincidence of this year’s Super Bowl betting is the over/under for aircraft in the flyover is the same as the over/under for people at the game that will see the flyover. Lucas Oil Stadium is a dome, everybody. The Air Force could probably get away with sending a group of Cessnas over the stadium if they had those same stupid mufflers that make crappy four cylinder cars sound impressive.

There are more fantastic prop bets than I can count. Longest touchdown, MVP, margin of victory… the list goes on way past my desire to list them all. (If you want to check out all the Super Bowl props, spend some time at Scores and Odds. If you want to hear Ryan and I do 20 minutes on bad bets and Kelly Clarkson jokes, visit the third More Than a Fan Podcast.)

The game itself is going to be fantastic. I can’t get over thinking that we’re going to see a handful of mistakes and a lot of passing yards. Since we’ve all spent our gambling budget on what Madonna is going to wear during the halftime show there’s nothing left to bet on the game itself, so the line doesn’t matter. The whole shebang depends on whether New England can solve the Giants pass rush. If the Patriots can keep Tom Brady upright for the first three drives, I can’t help but think New England will go into halftime leading by double digits. That will be enough to deal with a late New York charge, even if Hakeem Nicks coats his helmet in double sided tape.

I just don’t have the same faith in Eli Manning that some people have. Super Bowl XLVI (46, for those of us that aren’t Romans) is going to be all about Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. I don’t love either of those guys, but I respect the hell out what they’ve accomplished. And if you don’t think that Peyton won’t be beating up an Eli voodoo doll during the game, you’re crazy.

New England Patriots 31 – New York Giants 24

Have NFL questions?  Want to argue with me?  Who do you like to win the Super Bowl?

Email me at JoshFlagner@gmail.com; follow me on Twitter at @RailbirdJ and like More Than a Fan on Facebook.

Check out the More Than a Fan podcast Ryan Isley and I talk sports and crack jokes while sitting awfully close to a beer fridge.


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Josh says things. Here and at Josh Flagner {dot} com. #MTAF #CavsZine