Josh's Week 11 NFL Picks


It’s an NFL Thursday night and all I can think about is Cleveland Cavaliers basketball. I know this is an NFL column, but let me drop a quick plug for the reason that I’m so hyped about the Cavs right now. No, it’s not their record. (sad trombone)

This morning the mail order distribution of Cavs Zine 3 went live! (Better known as #CavsZine3 in the world of twitter and social media). It is THE publication that every Cavs fan has to have, but only 300 hundred of each volume exist. I have 30/300.

It’s totally free, all you pay is $3 shipping and handling. If you can swing the three bones, there will be some Cleveland area giveaways. The best way to keep up to date on when and where you can get these bad boys in person is to follow @WayneEmbrysKids on the twitter. The Cavs fan community spent a lot of years as a big blob of unorganized goop before this guy turned us into a well organized group of fans with the Cavs Zine franchise. Thanks, Jack.


Now, on to football. The crew at Super Standings has the NFL sorted out for us, and I’ll be talking NFL on The Gary Snyder Show Friday afternoons.

Super Standings

Divisional Races
The following teams have a 90% chance or better of winning their division so there isn’t much to say as long as they don’t do something like tie St. Louis to drop below 90%.
Atlanta, New England, Houston, Denver

But 90% is not 100%, so all of the above teams need to keep on track to win their divisions.

San Francisco dropped to an 88% chance of winning the NFC West when they could not beat St. Louis, but they have the highest power rating in the league and should go on to win the division.

Here are the divisional races that are still in play:

NFC East
The NY Giants are still a strong favorite, but they dropped from 80% to 69% when they lost last week and Dallas won.

NFC North
Chicago and Green Bay have about equal chances to win the NFC South.  Chicago has the one game lead but Green Bay has a victory over Chicago and a better power rating.  The winner, especially if it is Chicago (if they beat SF this week), has a chance for a first round bye, so the the week 15 rematch between these teams is very important.  But with a race this close all games are important.

AFC North
Baltimore and Pittsburgh both have 10.5 “Most Likely Wins”.  But that will change after they play this Sunday night. The game between Baltimore and Pittsburgh has the most significance of any game this week. Baltimore has a chance to get a first round bye in the playoffs if they win the division, but they by no means a favorite at this time.  They have a win over New England and they have a home game against Denver.  They have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL.  If Pittsburgh wins the division it is unlikely that they will get a first round bye.  So they are playing for a first round home game if they win the division.  They only had one game against a likely playoff team, Denver, and lost so they do not have that tiebreaker in their favor.

NFC Playoff Seeding
Atlanta’s has a 75% chance of having a first round bye.  The second first round bye will probably come from the NFC North or West.  So this weeks game with Chicago @ San Francisco will give one of those teams a much needed win and a “head to head” tiebreaker for the race for the second playoff seed.

The Early Games

My only two upsets are the Eagles and Jaguars? I must be high. (I’m joking) (I have to say I’m joking because people from my day job read this)

The Late Games

Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck in one three game afternoon set? I need three TVs.

Prime Time

These games were going to be great until all the QBs except Joe Flacco got some kind of hurt and the Ravens defense is terrible.

Ben Roethlisberger’s injury is legitimately scary. (So is his face)


About Author

Josh says things. Here and at Josh Flagner {dot} com. #MTAF #CavsZine