Josh's Week 10 NFL Picks


Super Standings

The NFL Division races are pretty much sealed up at this point in the season. The only real race left is in the AFC North, where the Steelers are behind the Ravens according to the math over at Super Standings, but they’re my pick to come away with the the division crown. Be sure to check out Super Standings as the season comes to a close to keep an eye on the most mathematically accurate power rankings and projections on the planet.

NFC East
NY Giants chance of winning the division increased from 72% to 80% mainly at the expense of Philadelphia.

NFC North
Chicago’s chance of winning the division increased from 48% to 64%.  Minnesota is no longer has much of a chance at 2%.

NFC South
Still Atlanta at 98%

NFC West
Still SF at 95%

AFC East
Still NE at 94%

AFC North
Baltimore still has a 65% chance to win the division, but Pittsburgh’s PWR rating went up and their MLW (most likely wins) increased to 10.0.  Their chance of winning the division has increased to 36%.  The only divisional race in the AFC.

AFC West
Denver at 94%

AFC Playoff Seeding
New England gained a little on Houston for the #1 seed.  Playoff seed #2 is still very open.  The wild cards are very open.  Pittsburgh is in the “lead” at only 35% for WC1.  It looks like 1 wild card will come from the AFC North with San Diego, Indianapolis and Miami looking to be an 8 win wild card.

NCF Playoff Seeding
Atlanta leads at a 50% chance of being #1 with the other bye going being SF or Chicago.  Green Bay leads the Wild Card pack (but they still have 29% chance of winning the division) with Seattle and Detroit battling for the second wild card

The Early Games

I took less big favorites this week, and I’m hoping that it works out for me. Tennessee and Minnesota are both pretenders, but I’ve got them both with the points against favorites that I don’t particularly believe in, either. San Diego is my third upset of the early session. Mainly because no one ever knows what to expect from the Chargers, and beating up the Buccaneers at home is the kind of unpredictable thing that they’d do.

The favorites I picked all seem pretty safe to me. Maybe Baltimore doesn’t cover against the Raiders. Maybe.


The Late Games

Seattle will continue to make me look stupid, the Cowboys will continue the weekly beatings of Mike Vick, and St. Louis will SHOCK THE WORLD by only losing by a touchdown. Ho-hum afternoon.

Prime Time

Chicago and Pittsburgh may score 65 points between them. Pittsburgh’s offense will dominate Kansas City and Chicago’s defense will force 4 turnovers in a decisive win. Done and done. Those two teams are good right now.


About Author

Josh says things. Here and at Josh Flagner {dot} com. #MTAF #CavsZine